Between 16 January 2019 and 13 March 2024, the number of people in Italy holding a Driver Certificate of Professional Competence for goods transport fell from 1,177,077 to 767,948. That is 409,129 fewer certificates, a 35% drop, and it is the figure that opens most Italian discussions of the driver shortage, usually next to age: one holder in three is over 55.
Read by age, the same data says something else. 63% of the certificates lost belonged to people who were between 30 and 54 in 2019, about 256,000 net of anyone who qualified at that age. Holders over 55 accounted for 189,000. Most of the outflow happens mid-career, among drivers still some way from retirement.
Public debate in Italy is looking at the other end, with a proposal to raise the maximum age for heavy-vehicle drivers to 70 in the new Highway Code. This study runs three calculations on public data: how many certificate holders reach retirement thresholds by 2029 and 2034, how many remain under three scenarios, and how many new truck licences are issued each year, office by office. Every figure has its source, listed at the end. The scope is Italian; the method works for any country that publishes the same two tables.
Where the numbers come from
In Italy the Driver CPC required by Directive (EU) 2022/2561 is called the carta di qualificazione del conducente (CQC). Drivers need it on top of a C or CE licence to drive a truck for a living, and renew it every five years with 35 hours of periodic training. The Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport does not publish it as open data, but it has twice extracted the number of holders by five-year age band, on 16 January 2019 and 13 March 2024, for the trade magazine Uomini e Trasporti. The full table is in a report by CGIA, a Venice-based association of small businesses, dated 10 August 2024; the age bands add up exactly to the stated totals.
A valid certificate is not a driver at work. Some people keep it without driving; some drive vans that do not require it. It is, however, the only official count of people who can drive a truck professionally, and it runs to 2024.
Generation by generation: who is still there five years later
The two extractions are five years and two months apart. Someone in the 40-44 band in 2019 is in the 45-49 band in 2024. Comparing the two figures shows how many holders from that generation are still there, net of anyone who qualified at that age:
| Age in 2019 | Holders 2019 | Age in 2024 | Holders 2024 | Still holding after five years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-34 | 65,310 | 35-39 | 62,846 | 96% |
| 35-39 | 120,780 | 40-44 | 93,677 | 78% |
| 40-44 | 192,996 | 45-49 | 134,311 | 70% |
| 45-49 | 230,736 | 50-54 | 152,468 | 66% |
| 50-54 | 236,204 | 55-59 | 146,238 | 62% |
| 55-59 | 185,130 | 60-64 | 89,181 | 48% |
| 60-64 | 96,758 | 65-69 | 20,008 | 21% |
Source: Optivo analysis of the Ministry table published by CGIA, extractions of 16-01-2019 and 13-03-2024.
Retention falls steadily from the age of 35: among those aged 40 to 54, one in three no longer held a certificate five years later. Below 30 the opposite happens. The two youngest bands of 2019 have more holders in 2024 than they started with, because at those ages more people qualify than leave, and holders under 25 grew by 66%. The young generations added about 37,000 holders net, which is why the losses of the two groups (256,000 and 189,000) add up to more than the 409,000 certificates lost overall.
What it means for a company to lose a 45-year-old driver shows up first in hours: the ones left uncovered and the ones colleagues cover as overtime. What one of those hours costs an Italian employer is what the driver hour cost calculator works out in two minutes, without signing up, from the 2026 ministerial tables.
How many leave because of age, and what a limit of 70 would change
Age matters, but for a smaller share of holders than is often reported. Assuming ages are evenly spread within each five-year band, of the 767,948 holders in 2024:
| Threshold | By 2029 | By 2034 |
|---|---|---|
| Turn 65 | 113,735 (14.8%) | 259,973 (33.9%) |
| Turn 68 | 60,226 (7.8%) | 172,230 (22.4%) |
| Turn 70 | 24,554 (3.2%) | 113,735 (14.8%) |
The 65 row is the “one driver in three” figure that circulates in Italy: everyone over 55 today turns 65 by 2034. CGIA, counting everyone over 50, reached “one driver in two”.
The age limit in force is narrower than people assume. Article 115(2) of the Italian Highway Code sets a limit of 65 for driving articulated vehicles and road trains over 20 tonnes, which can be extended year by year to 68 with an annual specialist medical examination. For a rigid truck the Code sets no maximum age, and the Ministry table counts 4,546 certificate holders over 70.
The draft of the new Highway Code, given preliminary approval by the Council of Ministers on 13 October 2026 and now before Parliament (Government Act 448), moves age and medical requirements into annexes V.2 and V.3 (Article 173). The annexes were not included in the draft text we read. According to press reports, they raise the limit to 70 for categories C1, C1E, C and CE, with medical checks every two years. Until the annexes are published it is unclear whether the limit will apply to every truck or, as today, only to combinations over 20 tonnes.
An order of magnitude is still possible. In 2024 about 8,000 certificate holders were aged 68 or 69, 1% of the total: that is the maximum number the two extra years would keep at the wheel today, and only if they drive road trains. The 2019-2024 data also shows that between the 60-64 and the 65-69 bands only one holder in five remained: most leave before the limit of 68 comes into play.
Three scenarios for 2034
To look ahead, we assumed that each generation keeps losing holders at the 2019-2024 pace for another five and ten years. The real question is how much of those five years will repeat: the period includes the pandemic and the extensions of document validity, and we do not know which rule the two extractions used to count a certificate as valid. So the results are three scenarios, not a forecast.
| Scenario | 2029 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|
| Same as 2019-2024, pandemic included | 500,699 | 351,073 |
| Mid-career losses halved compared with 2019-2024 | 574,498 | 441,840 |
| Nobody leaves before 55, only age-related exits remain | 648,296 | 548,414 |
The third scenario is as optimistic as possible about mid-career exits, and it still shows a 29% fall in ten years: the age of today’s holders is enough to shrink their number, even with young people coming in at the 2019-2024 pace.
Reality will most likely fall somewhere between these extremes, and nobody knows where. So we varied three assumptions together, trying 20,000 combinations: how much of the mid-career exits seen in 2019-2024 repeats, between 30% and 100%; how many young people come in, from 20% fewer to 50% more than in 2019-2024; and how many stay on after 55, up to 20% more or fewer. The central result for 2034 is 438,467 holders, and in eight combinations out of ten the figure falls between 370,925 and 509,136. For 2029 the central result is 558,983.
For each of the three assumptions we measured how far it moves the 2034 figure, in two ways: going from its lowest to its highest value, and with a small change of 1%. Both are needed, because the first depends on how wide a range we chose and the second does not.
| Assumption | Lowest to highest value | For a 1% change | Who controls it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-career exits | 131,545 holders | −0.28% | partly the employer, through working conditions |
| Young people coming in | 114,928 holders | +0.43% | partly the employer, by paying for training; otherwise incentives and the labour market |
| Staying on after 55 | 37,838 holders | +0.22% | neither: age limits, health, pensions |
For a small change, young people coming in matter most; across the whole range, mid-career exits matter most. Staying on after 55, where the maximum age sits, is the assumption that matters least either way.
Who comes in: truck licences, office by office
New certificates are not published by area. Truck licence tests are: the annual statistics of the Italian vehicle and licensing authority, the Motorizzazione, released under an open licence, report category C tests for each of its 102 offices, with passes and fails. Practical tests passed are the closest inflow to the certificate that can be read area by area.
| Year | Category C practical tests passed |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 14,500 |
| 2017 | 13,087 |
| 2018 | 14,071 |
| 2019 | 15,425 |
| 2020 | 11,795 |
| 2021 | 20,255 |
| 2022 | 18,665 |
| 2023 | 20,252 |
| 2024 | 20,147 |
| 2025 | 19,239 |
Source: Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, statistics on driving licence tests, 2016-2025 editions.
The 2023-2025 average is 19,879 new C licences a year, 43% more than in 2016-2018. Since 2021 the level has held at around 20,000. For scale, between 2019 and 2024 the number of certificate holders fell by about 79,000 a year, net; the two figures do not measure the same thing, because a C licence is not a certificate and a lost certificate is not always one driver fewer.
Relative to the population the same statistics assign to each office, entries range from 10.8 to 94.2 per 100,000 residents, with an Italian average of 33.7. At the top are Vercelli (94.2), Mantua (87.4), Trento (70.7), Bolzano (70.1) and Pisa (66.3). At the bottom are the large cities: Milan (10.8), Rome (21.2), Naples (21.7), Florence (22.1) and Palermo (23.0).
Milan is the clearest case. It is one of Italy’s main logistics hubs, and its licensing office, which in the Ministry table also covers Monza and Brianza (4.1 million residents), issues 445 C licences a year, barely more than the 356 of Mantua, with a tenth of the population. Two caveats stop this from being a map of the shortage: candidates take the test where their driving school is, not where they live, and a small province with a large training centre climbs the ranking for that reason. Mantua, which nearly quadrupled its tests compared with 2016-2018, is probably such a case. The full table is at the end of this article.
What it means for a fleet of 35 drivers
Take a fleet of 35 drivers whose ages are distributed like those of all Italian holders. Today 11.8 are over 55. If the next five years look like the last five, and leaving aside new hires, 14.3 will leave: 7.6 aged 55 or more, 6.7 younger. The 6.7 younger ones are the drivers the fleet can try to keep.
Italian sources say little about why drivers leave at 40. IRU, the world road transport organisation, reports the case of CEVA Logistics in its 2025 driver shortage report: a retention programme built on driver feedback brought turnover down from 50% in 2022 to 17% in 2025. The most common complaints concerned facilities at loading and unloading sites, late documents and equipment maintenance; CEVA also sees drivers moving from long-haul to short-haul work, for less pay, to spend more time at home. The same report puts the shortage at 15% in European operators with fewer than 50 employees and 9% in larger ones.
What follows is our reading, not IRU’s. Part of those conditions is set by whoever plans the work: a predictable return time, loads spread across drivers instead of always falling on the same ones, waiting time at unloading accounted for before departure. In waste collection, the link between unbalanced routes and driver turnover has been documented outside Italy. A company cannot raise the legal driving age. It writes its route plan every day.
Stated limitations
- The two extractions may not count in the same way. We do not know whether they include recently expired certificates awaiting renewal, and the pandemic extensions fall between the two dates. If the 2019 figure was inflated by unused certificates, part of the mid-career loss would be archive clean-up: this is why, in the 20,000 combinations, at least 30% of the mid-career exits always repeat.
- A certificate is not a working driver, and a passed C licence test does not tell whether the person will drive for a living.
- Within each five-year band we assumed ages to be evenly spread. With bands that wide, the error on the 68 and 70 thresholds is in the order of a few thousand holders.
- The certificate data is national only. We do not know where departing holders live: the office ranking measures entries, not replacement. Provincial data exists in the licensing authority’s archive and is not published.
- The text on the maximum age in the new Highway Code is not yet public. If the annexes extended the limit to the whole of category C, the estimate would change, and we will update it.
Method and sources
All the data is public and available at the addresses below. The certificates by age come from the Ministry table published by CGIA, and we checked that the age bands add up to the stated totals. The category C tests come from the ten annual editions of the licensing authority’s statistics, 2016 to 2025: for every year, the office totals match the national totals in the same publication. On this data we ran three calculations: the generation-by-generation comparison between 2019 and 2024; the 65, 68 and 70 thresholds, with ages evenly spread within each band; and the three scenarios to 2034, with the 20,000 combinations of assumptions described above to see how much the result depends on each. If you want to redo a calculation with your own numbers, write to us and we will send the tables.
- CGIA Mestre, research office, report of 10 August 2024, table 1: certificate holders by age band, analysis by Uomini e Trasporti of Ministry data, extractions of 16-01-2019 and 13-03-2024 (in Italian).
- Uomini e Trasporti, article of 29 August 2024 on certificate holders by age, with the same two extractions (in Italian).
- Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, Directorate General for the Motorizzazione, statistics on driving licence tests, 2016-2025 editions, released under an open licence: category C results and population by office (in Italian).
- Legislative Decree 285 of 30 April 1992, Article 115, current text on Normattiva (in Italian).
- Draft legislative decree on the Highway Code, Government Act 448, Article 173; on the limit of 70, Trans.info article (in Italian).
- IRU, Global Driver Shortage Report 2025, preview, pages on small operators and on CEVA Logistics.
A citation line, ready to paste:
Optivo, “Driver shortage in Italy: 63% of the Driver CPCs lost since 2019 belonged to 30-to-54-year-olds”, November 2026, analysis of Italian Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport data.
Frequently asked questions
Why is the retirement share lower here than in most reports?
Because it depends on the threshold. Counting everyone over 50, as CGIA did, gives 54% of holders and “one driver in two within ten years”. Counting those over 55 gives 34%, the people who turn 65 by 2034. Using 68, the limit for road trains, the 2034 share falls to 22%. None of the three is wrong, but they measure different things: over 50 is an age band, while 65 and 68 are the legal limits for road trains over 20 tonnes.
Does a lost certificate mean one driver fewer?
Not always. A certificate also lapses when its holder switches to vans or has not used it for years. So the 35% drop shows at most how many working drivers were lost, not exactly how many. The generation-by-generation comparison has the same limitation, but it shows at which ages the effect is strongest.
Would raising the maximum age to 70 solve the shortage?
On 2024 figures it would concern about 8,000 holders at most, those aged 68 or 69, and only those driving road trains over 20 tonnes if today’s rule stays. In 2019-2024, 79% of holders had already left between the 60-64 and the 65-69 bands, before the limit of 68. The measure may help those who want to keep driving, but it acts on a small share of holders.
Why is the ranking by licensing office rather than by province?
Because that is how the Ministry statistics are organised. Most offices match a province; some cover two, and Milan includes Monza and Brianza. The per-capita figure uses the population the Ministry assigns to the office, so the comparison is consistent.
Do these findings apply outside Italy?
The numbers do not: they describe Italian holders. The method does. Any country that publishes certificate holders by age band at two dates, and licence tests by area, can make the same generation-by-generation comparison. IRU’s 2025 data suggests the age profile is similar across Europe, with smaller operators more exposed.
How often will these numbers be updated?
The licence test statistics come out every April, and we update the office table when they do. The certificates by age depend on a new extraction by the Ministry: when one is published, we redo the generation comparison and the scenarios.
Full table by licensing office
Category C practical tests passed, annual average 2023-2025, relative to the office population reported in the 2025 statistics. The change is against the 2016-2018 average.
| # | Office | C licences a year | Per 100,000 residents | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vercelli | 156 | 94.2 | +136% |
| 2 | Mantua | 356 | 87.4 | +293% |
| 3 | Trento | 387 | 70.7 | +62% |
| 4 | Bolzano | 378 | 70.1 | +27% |
| 5 | Pisa | 277 | 66.3 | +45% |
| 6 | Verbania | 98 | 64.2 | +35% |
| 7 | Nuoro | 118 | 60.2 | +46% |
| 8 | Crotone | 97 | 59.7 | +8% |
| 9 | Campobasso | 119 | 57.1 | +18% |
| 10 | Foggia | 332 | 56.2 | +42% |
| 11 | Isernia | 43 | 55.0 | −17% |
| 12 | Catanzaro | 185 | 54.5 | +173% |
| 13 | Ascoli Piceno | 192 | 52.3 | +69% |
| 14 | Cuneo | 302 | 52.0 | +29% |
| 15 | Ragusa | 167 | 51.9 | +28% |
| 16 | Cremona | 180 | 50.9 | +92% |
| 17 | Piacenza | 146 | 50.9 | +84% |
| 18 | Savona | 133 | 49.9 | +92% |
| 19 | Alessandria | 196 | 48.1 | +51% |
| 20 | Enna | 72 | 47.0 | +101% |
| 21 | Treviso | 411 | 46.7 | +48% |
| 22 | Sondrio | 82 | 46.0 | +19% |
| 23 | Matera | 87 | 45.8 | −4% |
| 24 | Aosta | 56 | 45.7 | +13% |
| 25 | L’Aquila | 129 | 45.1 | +33% |
| 26 | Brescia | 569 | 45.0 | +94% |
| 27 | Vibo Valentia | 68 | 45.0 | +50% |
| 28 | Latina | 253 | 44.6 | +58% |
| 29 | Livorno | 143 | 43.8 | +51% |
| 30 | Udine | 225 | 43.5 | +89% |
| 31 | Potenza | 148 | 43.3 | +75% |
| 32 | Rovigo | 98 | 43.3 | +18% |
| 33 | Terni | 93 | 43.0 | +48% |
| 34 | Forlì | 168 | 42.8 | +96% |
| 35 | Lucca | 161 | 42.3 | +40% |
| 36 | Pordenone | 130 | 41.9 | +144% |
| 37 | Ancona | 187 | 40.6 | +17% |
| 38 | Arezzo | 135 | 40.5 | +51% |
| 39 | Agrigento | 165 | 40.4 | +82% |
| 40 | Perugia | 256 | 40.2 | +28% |
| 41 | Lecco | 133 | 39.8 | +45% |
| 42 | Vicenza | 338 | 39.6 | +50% |
| 43 | Trieste | 90 | 39.4 | +94% |
| 44 | Pescara | 122 | 39.2 | +35% |
| 45 | Macerata | 118 | 39.1 | +23% |
| 46 | Catania | 414 | 38.7 | +46% |
| 47 | Massa-Carrara | 72 | 38.5 | +32% |
| 48 | Ferrara | 130 | 38.4 | +36% |
| 49 | Rimini | 131 | 38.4 | +31% |
| 50 | Siena | 99 | 38.3 | +66% |
| 51 | Bergamo | 423 | 37.9 | +59% |
| 52 | Oristano | 56 | 37.8 | +1% |
| 53 | Benevento | 95 | 36.6 | −1% |
| 54 | Rieti | 55 | 36.5 | +27% |
| 55 | Verona | 337 | 36.3 | +37% |
| 56 | Venice | 301 | 36.1 | +38% |
| 57 | Asti | 75 | 36.0 | +33% |
| 58 | Chieti | 133 | 35.9 | +28% |
| 59 | Avellino | 139 | 35.3 | +17% |
| 60 | Ravenna | 136 | 35.0 | +58% |
| 61 | Reggio nell’Emilia | 186 | 35.0 | +82% |
| 62 | Trapani | 142 | 34.6 | −36% |
| 63 | Brindisi | 129 | 34.3 | +2% |
| 64 | Reggio Calabria | 176 | 34.2 | +22% |
| 65 | Cosenza | 227 | 34.0 | −16% |
| 66 | Grosseto | 72 | 33.6 | +27% |
| 67 | Teramo | 100 | 33.4 | +11% |
| 68 | Salerno | 349 | 33.1 | +35% |
| 69 | Syracuse | 126 | 33.0 | +48% |
| 70 | Belluno | 65 | 32.7 | +41% |
| 71 | Biella | 55 | 32.7 | +42% |
| 72 | La Spezia | 70 | 32.6 | +69% |
| 73 | Viterbo | 100 | 32.4 | +15% |
| 74 | Genoa | 265 | 32.3 | +63% |
| 75 | Bologna | 326 | 32.0 | +67% |
| 76 | Caserta | 289 | 31.8 | +42% |
| 77 | Pesaro | 111 | 31.7 | −1% |
| 78 | Padua | 294 | 31.5 | +49% |
| 79 | Pavia | 170 | 31.4 | +128% |
| 80 | Caltanissetta | 77 | 31.2 | +12% |
| 81 | Cagliari | 231 | 31.0 | +10% |
| 82 | Bari | 477 | 29.9 | +17% |
| 83 | Parma | 135 | 29.6 | +61% |
| 84 | Imperia | 61 | 29.3 | +60% |
| 85 | Modena | 207 | 29.3 | +85% |
| 86 | Turin | 637 | 28.9 | +50% |
| 87 | Lodi | 66 | 28.7 | +191% |
| 88 | Taranto | 156 | 28.3 | +8% |
| 89 | Gorizia | 38 | 27.5 | −8% |
| 90 | Como | 163 | 27.3 | +34% |
| 91 | Varese | 235 | 26.6 | +92% |
| 92 | Sassari | 120 | 25.4 | −4% |
| 93 | Frosinone | 117 | 25.3 | +15% |
| 94 | Pistoia | 70 | 24.1 | +50% |
| 95 | Messina | 143 | 24.0 | +58% |
| 96 | Lecce | 178 | 23.2 | +22% |
| 97 | Novara | 84 | 23.1 | +57% |
| 98 | Palermo | 276 | 23.0 | +23% |
| 99 | Florence | 276 | 22.1 | +84% |
| 100 | Naples | 643 | 21.7 | +23% |
| 101 | Rome | 896 | 21.2 | +68% |
| 102 | Milan | 445 | 10.8 | +26% |
Next step
If some of the people who leave do so because of how the working day is organised, the first data to look at is your own: how many weeks run over the limits, which drivers always get the longest routes, how many hours go on waiting. Book a demo and we will look at your fleet’s routes together with OptivoRoute, Optivo’s route optimization software.